This article was updated on Thursday, February 19, 2026, to include new data on the topic, as reported by Newsweek and Forbes. It was originally published on Tuesday, February 17, 2026.
Canada’s airlines are sending a clear signal to the United States with their schedules. When it comes to where their aircraft are flying, Mexico is getting more routes, more seats, and more frequencies, while the US transborder market is being trimmed, suspended, or, in one case, totally abandoned. This isn’t just a seasonal tweak for snowbirds. It’s a capacity reallocation that lines up with shifting demand, shifting economics, and, yes, shifting politics.
The transition began a year ago when the Trump administration imposed tariffs on Canada, prompting Canadians to significantly cut trips to the US. However, as ties between the two nations have remained frayed, the Canadian carriers are performing a remarkable shift of capacity away from the US and towards Mexico. This was further reinforced today as the nation’s flag carrier announced additional capacity to Mexico amid a drop in US flights, stating the changes are supporting “Canada’s trade diversification.”
Air Canada’s Mexico Moves Aren’t Subtle
Credit: Air Canada
Air Canada didn’t bury the lede with this morning’s announcement. It is adding 18% more seat capacity to Mexico this summer versus last summer, calling the move a strategic expansion and explicitly tying it to Canada–Mexico ties and trade diversification. The headline is a new route from Montréal–Trudeau International Airport to Guadalajara International Airport, positioned as a year-round nonstop flight.
That schedule matters: year-round service is the difference between a one-season toe-dip and a route the airline expects to sell in multiple demand cycles. However, the expansion isn’t only about launching Guadalajara. Indeed, as detailed below, Air Canada is also adding frequencies on existing Mexico routes, the kind of quiet capacity growth that can add up fast because it’s easier to execute and easier to sell.
Air Canada’s Capacity Increases To Mexico
Route
Weekly Increase
Montréal–Cancún
Four additional flights, increasing to 11 weekly
Toronto–Monterrey
One additional flight, increasing to four weekly
Vancouver–Mexico City
Four additional flights, increasing to 11 weekly
Vancouver–Puerto Vallarta
One additional flight, increasing to twice-weekly
Air Canada quantified the scale of its Mexico expansion by saying it’s “an 18% year-over-year boost.” But then there’s the framing. The release also included quotes from the Canadian government and business leaders, explicitly linking direct air connections to trade diversification and Canada–Mexico economic ties. Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for Canada-US Trade, Intergovernmental Affairs, and One Canadian Economy, had the following to say:
“As Canada leads one of the most important Team Canada Trade Missions in Canadian history, we are focused on helping Canadian businesses reach new markets and create new partnerships. Announcements like this by Air Canada will further strengthen Canada-Mexico ties and enable our two countries to do even more business together.”
Meanwhile, Candace Laing, the president of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said that “Canadian companies are looking to diversify trade and build new partnerships, so these direct connections with strong trade partners matter.” In other words, Air Canada and its partners in the Canadian government are sending a message. Together, they are very clearly positioning Mexico as a strategic corridor for commercial connectivity and diversification, and inevitably, this is at the expense of the US.
Mexico Is Getting Much Bigger For All Canadian Carriers
Credit: Shutterstock
Air Canada’s announcement fits a wider pattern: Canadian carriers are increasingly treating Mexico as a growth market at the expense of the US. Looking at data from Cirium, an aviation analytics company, for the first half of 2026, while Canada–US scheduled capacity has fallen sharply year-over-year, capacity to Mexico has increased by a staggering 46%.
It’s not a single-airline story either. It’s a system-wide signal that aircraft are being redeployed to where bookings and yields look better. The biggest mover is WestJet, which only recently cut 11 US routes from its schedule. To balance out the ledger, it has added more than 4,500 new flights to Mexico in H1 2026, an increase of 59% over the same period last year. This includes new routes from its base at Calgary International Airport to Guadalajara, Riviera Nayarit, Cozumel, Puerto Escondido, and Mazatlán.
Increase In Canada-Mexico Flights By Canadian Airlines (H1 2026)
Carrier
H1 2025 Flights
H1 2026 Flights
% Change
Air Canada
5,378
6,330
18%
WestJet
7,798
12,376
59%
Air Transat
2,208
2,450
11%
Porter Airlines
–
1,268
–
Total
15,384
22,424
46%
Air Canada and Air Transat, while not shifting quite as sharply as WestJet, are also experiencing double-digit growth to Mexico this year. Porter Airlines, which only started flying to Mexico recently using its Embraer 195-E2 fleet, is also adding to the mix, taking the total to more than 7,000 additional Canada-Mexico flights by Canadian carriers in H1 2026.
What ties these together is the ‘shape’ of the growth, as it’s not only about adding shiny new routes. A lot of the Mexico expansion is happening through frequency additions on already-proven corridors, plus select new city pairs that broaden options beyond the traditional resort map.
Related
WestJet Cuts 11 US Routes In Major Network Shake-Up [Full List]
Find out all the routes that no longer exist, including some that won’t now have flights on any carrier.
More Mexico Means Less US, And The Cuts Are Real
Credit: Shutterstock
The other half of this story is what’s being left behind. The US transborder market has been taking real schedule hits for over a year now, and the first half of this year is no different, with further reductions on the way. The data shows another 6% decrease in traffic to US destinations by Canadian carriers compared to the same time last year, essentially removing over 6,000 flights from the schedule. However, we should pause for a moment.
This data is troubling for the US, where hundreds of thousands of jobs hinge on tens of billions of dollars in spending by inbound Canadian visitors. However, the data itself might be too rosy. If you reduce the aperture down to just Q1 2026, the decrease in US-bound flights by Canadian airlines has actually been even higher at 9%. There is still plenty of time for the Canadian carriers to make further cuts to Q2 schedules, and a 9% cut across the full first half of the year would remove a further 3,000 flights.
Decrease In Canada-US Flights By Canadian Airlines (H1 2026)
Carrier
H1 2025 Flights
H1 2026 Flights
% Change
Air Canada
65,820
64,454
-2%
WestJet
19,338
15,878
-18%
Air Transat
1,196
682
-43%
Porter Airlines
13,262
12,546
-5%
Total
99,616
93,560
-6%
Once again, WestJet is the major mover, removing nearly 3,500 US-bound flights from its schedule. However, Air Transat is the largest alarm bell, as it has chosen to axe all US flights from May. Even Air Canada, which historically holds the lion’s share of business travel amongst the Canadian carriers, is quietly removing more than a thousand US-bound flights.
Of course, this doesn’t mean Canada–US flying disappears. It’s still a massive aviation market, and major business routes and hub links will remain sticky. But if you’re looking for the clearest indicators in the schedules, it’s this: Canada’s carriers are putting more metal where Canadians are most eager to spend their vacation days, and that’s increasingly south of the border, just not the one the US is used to.
New Data To Support These Findings
Credit: Unsplash
Data showing Canadian carriers shifting capacity from US to Mexican routes was further supported by reporting from Newsweek on February 19, in which it states that Mexico is reaping the rewards as Canadian tourists abandon US trips. More specifically, it cites the latest data from Canada’s national statistical agency, which shows that return trips to the US in January dropped by 24% compared to a year prior.
Meanwhile, data from Mexico’s civil aviation agency and Anáhuac University’s Center for Advanced Research indicate that trips to the country have moved into this space. For the first time, the Cancún-Toronto corridor ranked as the busiest international flight into Mexico, with travel from Toronto to the Mexican Caribbean surging 26% year-over-year. Chris Lynes, managing director of Flight Center Travel Group, had the following to say:
“Over the past year, we’ve seen a redistribution of Canadian travel spending. While US travel has softened considerably, outbound travel to other destinations like Mexico and interest in domestic trips has strengthened. If sustained, this could permanently reshape where Canadian travel dollars flow.”
Newsweek also cites a recent YouGov poll published by Forbes that found that 62% of Canadians say they are less inclined to visit the US than in previous years, with the current “political or cultural climate” (57%) cited as the key factor influencing their decision.
