The first thing to understand about sleepers and busts is exactly what they are.
A sleeper is a player that you value higher than the rest of the league, so in your rankings, they are higher than the current ADP. This means that when you draft a player as the 10th second baseman, but you have him ranked fifth best, you have found a sleeper.
On the opposite end, a bust is a player that you believe will not return draft day value. This is a player who gets drafted as the third second baseman, but returns less value by the end of the season.
The goal of every draft is to find sleepers and avoid busts, so here are some of my top sleepers and busts at second base.
Second Base Sleepers
Brandon Lowe, PIT
Plenty can be said about Brandon Lowe’s splits against left-handed pitching last season. He batted .194 in 147 plate appearances against them, compared to .280 in 406 PAs against RHP. Still, he should get plenty of runway to face lefty pitchers with Nick Yorke his main competition for platooning—Yorke has a career .226 AVG in 33 games—and should produce similarly to 2025.
Lowe had a major bounce back last season, reaching 130 games played for the second time since 2021, after multiple seasons where he was hampered by injuries. Lowe notched 31 homers, 79 runs, 83 RBI, three steals, and had a .256 AVG. His 2025 season earned him the sixth-highest dollar value according to Fangraphs’ dollar value player rater. His current ADP puts him at 2B9. Statistics similar to what he produced last season are entirely repeatable for Lowe in 2026.
Lowe has consistently been at the top of the leaderboards in terms of hard contact for second basemen. His 12% barrel rate and 46% HardHit rate both ranked third best for qualified second basemen last season. Lowe is also a heavy pull hitter and an elite line drive hitter, which should keep his average from dipping very far below .250 even if the strikeout rate continues to stay above 25%.
Even dealing with injuries, Lowe has produced and has been consistent in his production. He has little competition for playing time and is going much later in drafts. He is a great sleeper choice at 2B, where you do not have to pay a premium and can get potentially top-5 production at the position.
Luis García Jr., WAS
Luis García Jr. Jr. had a down year in terms of production last season compared to 2024. Perhaps it had to do with some back issues that he dealt with last season. He also missed time for the birth of a child. That decline in production could be driving down his price in drafts. It could also be that he plays for the Nationals, who seem to officially be in tank mode. Whatever the reason, Garcia is worth targeting in fantasy leagues this season.
The Nationals hired a new hitting coach—Matt Borgschulte—who spent time working with hitters on the Orioles’ and Twins’ staffs. This is going to be important for the Nats, who were one of the worst hitting and run-scoring teams in baseball last year. This will also be huge for Garcia, one of the Nationals’ most talented and under-the-radar hitters.
Garcia nearly reached a 20/20 season in 2023, swiping 22 bags and tallying 18 home runs in 139 games. Had he played a few more, he might have achieved that mark. Garcia has some sneaky power too, increasing both his barrel rate and HardHit rates for the third straight year to 9% and 45% respectively. Both numbers were above league average. He also improved his groundball rate and pull rate last season, something that should be a clear focus for the new hitting staff. The Nats had the eighth-highest groundball rate as an offense. Garcia should also see his chase and zone contact rates improve, something that Borgschulte has mentioned as part of his philosophy.
If Garcia can play in 140 or more games, he has a legitimate shot at turning in a 20/20 season this year, while also putting up a .260 AVG or better. Considering how late he goes, he could return immense value if things go right for him. He is an excellent sleeper this season.
Second Base Busts
Luke Keaschall, MIN
Luke Keaschall came into last season with a lot of prospect hype for the Twins. In 29 games, he swiped 14 bags and hit four homers, with 25 runs, 28 RBI, and a .302 AVG. Keaschall should end up with the bulk of the playing time at second for Minnesota this season, but the question will be about how much he can produce.
Using The Bat X projections, and including ties, Keaschall projects for the
- 14th most home runs (10)
- 9th most runs (67)
- 15th most RBI (51)
- 7th most steals (19)
- 5th best AVG (.271)
A good comparison would be Xander Bogaerts from last season, who finished with 11 home runs, 63 runs, 53 RBI, 20 steals, and a .263 AVG. That made Bogaerts a $4.9 player according to Fangraphs’ player rater, which would have ranked 17th best at second base. Even if he outproduces his projections, he may not return top-10 value at the position, which makes him a bust candidate considering his 2B7 ADP.
Keaschall has some excellent bat-to-ball and plate discipline skills that should give him a high AVG floor. That is valuable in today’s baseball landscape. But Keaschall has limitations in other places. His 5% barrel rate and 31% HardHit rate were both below league average. Both also profile nearly identically to the last four seasons for Bogaerts, who goes nearly 100 picks later in drafts.
Keaschall is an interesting option at the position, but hype has driven up his ADP, and could lead to him being a fantasy bust in 2026.
Xavier Edwards, MIA
Xavier Edwards has been productive on the basepaths for the Marlins, stealing 58 bases in 922 PAs. That is the 15th most steals across the last two seasons. That is where most of Edwards’ value lies, as well as with his career .298 AVG. Those stats can carry a team only so far in fantasy baseball, which makes Edwards’ 2B10 ADP questionable.
Bryson Stott, Jackson Holliday, Matt McLain, José Caballero, and Jorge Polanco are the next five second basemen off the board after Edwards. Using the Bat X projections, Edwards projects for the most PAs. He also projects for the fewest home runs. Compare him to Stott, who projects for fewer PAs but more home runs, runs, and RBI, and five fewer steals with a 17 point lower AVG. On average, Stott goes later in drafts.
Among those six, Edwards’ projections put him last in home runs, third in runs, fifth in RBI, second in steals, and first in AVG. Yet, he may go anywhere between five and 50 picks ahead of those players.
Edwards has shown minuscule hard contact ability, poor pull rates, and high groundball rates. His ability to make contact has been his best asset, making him more valuable in OBP leagues. But in traditional Roto or Category formats, he has been overvalued and is a major bust risk if he continues to be drafted as a top-10 second baseman.
José Caballero, NYY
Much like Edwards, José Caballero’s ability to steal seems to drive up his price. Caballero also features eligibility at multiple positions – an asset in fantasy. Last season, he hit five home runs, scored 52 runs, had 36 RBI, and stole 49 bases, with a .236 AVG. Even if he were to produce similarly to last season, it still only earned him $4.2 on Fangraphs’ player rater – the 18th best for second basemen.
That is problematic because his Bat X projections are all worse, except for his home run projection. Using those projections, he would be the 35th-ranked second baseman by dollar value.
The next five second basemen off the board—Jorge Polanco, Otto Lopez, Luis García Jr., Gleyber Torres, and Marcus Semien—all project for more home runs, runs, RBI, and better batting averages than Caballero.
You can also draft Victor Scott II, who shares outfield eligibility with Caballero, over 150 picks later. Scott hit the same number of homers as Caballero last season, but outscored him by one in both runs and RBI. Scott projects to outproduce Caballero in every traditional Roto stat except steals in 2026.
Be wary of drafting Caballero just for steals or positional value. If you do draft him, he should be taken much later than his current ADP. This makes him a possible fantasy bust in 2026.
