Premier League predictions and best bets: Listen to Arne Slot and back Liverpool to struggle against Wolves low block
Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the midweek Premier League card.
Bournemouth vs Brentford, Tuesday 7.30pm
Bournemouth under Andoni Iraola are all about making things happen. They build through the thirds, commit numbers centrally and encourage their midfielders to step into shooting zones rather than just circulate the ball.
That tactical freedom is bringing the best out of Alex Scott.
Alex Scott is 11/10 with Sky Bet for +2 shots
The 11/10 with Sky Bet for Scott to have two or more shots makes plenty of appeal when you drill into the recent numbers. He’s cleared this line in seven of his last eight appearances, racking up 24 shots across that spell. That’s an average of three per game – comfortably north of what this market is asking for.
Scott is developing real confidence and authority in this system. Scott looks like the next success story off the Bournemouth conveyor belt based on his increased impact on this team.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Alex Scott +2 shots (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Everton vs Burnley, Tuesday 7.30pm
The 3/1 with Sky Bet for Bashir Humphreys to be carded looks chunky when you line up the match-up down that flank.
Humphreys, operating down the left for Burnley, has been booked in four of his last nine starts in that role. That’s a 44 per cent hit rate. At 3/1, the market is implying something closer to 25 per cent. There’s a gap there which puts an edge in our favour.
And then you factor in who he’s likely to be facing.
Iliman Ndiaye is one of those attackers defenders hate playing against. Direct, sharp over five yards and clever with his body positioning. Since the start of last season he’s been responsible for drawing 11 cards from opponents – a strong indicator of how often he forces defenders into last-ditch challenges or cynical pulls.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Leeds vs Sunderland, Tuesday 7.30pm
There’s a nice fouls won angle based play here that leans into player habits.
The BuildABet with Sky Bet – Gabriel Gudmundsson to be fouled 2+ times and Granit Xhaka to be fouled 1+ times – rolls up to a very backable 13/8.
Gudmundsson is a foul-winning machine. He’s been fouled at least once in each of his last 22 starts, averaging 2.1 fouls won per 90 minutes in that stretch. That’s elite territory for this market. Just look at Saturday’s clash with Manchester City. Five fouls won. That tells you everything about his role.
Then there’s Xhaka.
Granit Xhaka forms part of a 13/8 BuildABet with Sky Bet
The wily old fox routine is alive and well. He might not cover the ground he once did, but he’s mastered the art of drawing soft fouls – stepping across opponents, using his body intelligently and exaggerating just enough to get the whistle.
He’s been fouled at least once in seven of his last eight games, winning 15 fouls across that run. That’s a steady, reliable baseline. One foul won is all we need from him – and two from Gudmundsson.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Wolves vs Liverpool, Tuesday 8.15pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There’s a bit of blind faith in the market around Liverpool at the moment.
They’re being priced on reputation and peak performance levels rather than what the tactical match-up might look like here. The 13/8 with Sky Bet on Wolves double chance (win or draw) is worth serious consideration.
Why? Because this is exactly the type of game that can make life awkward for Liverpool.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Wolves’ match against Aston Villa in the Premier League.
Arne Slot has spoken openly about his side’s discomfort when facing low blocks – teams that deny central space, slow the tempo and force them into sterile domination. Without Florian Wirtz knitting things together between the lines, that creative incision isn’t quite as sharp.
Wolves, under Rob Edwards, are becoming a tougher nut to crack precisely because they embrace that approach. Compact, disciplined and prepared to suffer without the ball is their remit.
Wolves have landed this double chance play against Arsenal, Newcastle United and Aston Villa when going off heavy outsiders. They’re comfortable being underestimated.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
Aston Villa vs Chelsea, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Aston Villa are a team to oppose right now while their engine room remains out of action. The absence of John McGinn, Youri Tielemans and Boubacar Kamara strips them of control, progression and bite in one of the most important areas of the pitch.
Without that trio, Villa look stale. Possession is slower. The press lacks cohesion. The intent just isn’t there.
The results back it up. One win in six, including a defeat to Wolves, reads even worse when you note none of those six opponents sit inside the top six of the Premier League. This wasn’t a brutal run of fixtures – it’s a downturn in performance levels.
What’s interesting, though, is that Villa’s defensive process hasn’t completely collapsed. Those six matches have averaged just two goals per game. They’re not being blown away – they’re just lacking spark.
Villa’s recent games suggest lower-scoring affairs.
The 5/2 with Sky Bet for Chelsea to win and under 3.5 goals neatly dovetails with those recent trends. It allows for a 1-0, 2-0 or even 2-1 away victory – outcomes that feel far more plausible than a goal-fest given Villa’s current limitations.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Brighton vs Arsenal, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Piero Hincapie has been fouled at least once in nine of his last 10 starts at left-back for Arsenal when you include the super-sub concession with Sky Bet. A player ticking along at a 90 per cent strike rate in the role brings about a consistency that offers a great investment opportunity.
He’s a great salesman when it comes to fouls. Playing in a position that he is learning on the job means he gets himself into tricky situations when faced with pressure. His answer to them? Hit the deck under contact. It’s the modern-way.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Arsenal’s match against Chelsea in the Premier League.
This ability to win fouls is not new either. During his time at Bayer Leverkusen, he drew 1.4 fouls per 90 last season – a strong number across a big sample size. Brighton rank third for fouls this season in the Premier League (12.6 per game) so Hincape should find many opportunities to showcase his foul drawing skills. He is 2/1 with Sky Bet to win +2 fouls.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Fulham vs West Ham, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
If you’re hunting for a game that could get loose this midweek, this is your spot.
Fulham matches are becoming a magnet for goals. Ten of their last 11 have rewarded over 2.5 backers. When their games stretch, they really stretch. And when that happens, the totals tend to follow.
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Highlights from the Premier League match between Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur.
That makes the ‘over 2.5 goals and both teams to score’ angle at Evens with Sky Bet particularly appealing.
West Ham arrive with genuine attacking threat of their own. Crysencio Summerville and Jarrod Bowen provide pace and incision from wide and central areas, giving them the ability to hurt teams in transition or sustained pressure.
Across their last nine matches, West Ham are scoring at 1.7 goals per game. The expected goals data is even stronger at 2.05 per match. Those are not numbers you’d associate with a side priced up like relegation fodder, they’re creating chances at a top-half rate.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Manchester City have conceded 11 or more shots in each of their last seven Premier League matches, shipping an average of 12.8 efforts per game in that run. That’s not vintage Pep Guardiola control. Yet, the markets are sleeping on this trend.
Even Wolves managed to hit the 11-shots mark at a nice price, which tells you this isn’t just a one-off blip – it’s a pattern. City are giving up territory, and when you give up territory in the Premier League, you give up shots.
Across their last eight matches, Nottingham Forest have averaged a chunky 18.5 shots per game. That’s huge volume. They’re playing with bravery, committing numbers forward, and crucially for this bet, pulling the trigger often. That’s what the pressure of relegation can do to a team.
The odds for Forest to have 11 or more shots at 10/11 with Sky Bet rates as a very tempting wager.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Newcastle vs Manchester United, Wednesday 8.15pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Since returning from injury, Harry Maguire has added a more streetwise side to his game. He’s not just hoofing it clear or standing tall – he’s anticipating, positioning and inviting contact in ways that are seeing him win more fouls than his long-term averages would suggest. The algorithms and markets are still catching up.
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Harry Maguire is trending on social media for claiming he was kicked in the head by Crystal Palace’s Jorgen Strand Larsen, but replays show that was not the case – take a closer look!
The numbers are compelling. He’s been fouled 11 times across his last seven matches – a huge average for a centre-back. Even more impressive, he’s hit the 2+ fouls won line in four of those matches, including the last three on the spin. That shows consistency, something which is vital when trusting a line of form in betting.
Against Newcastle, there’s every reason to expect similar behaviour. Maguire will be drawn into duels, asked to step into midfield and cover runners in behind. He’ll face direct challenges, and with Newcastle’s pressing style, fouls are practically baked in.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Harry Maguire +2 fouls won (5/2 with Sky Bet)
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace, Thursday 8pm
New Tottenham boss Igor Tudor likes his teams to play aggressively. His stints at Lazio and Juventus saw spikes in fouls per 90, and that approach has started here in north London. Spurs have committed 31 fouls across the two games since Tudor arrived.
Radu Dragusin has picked up the mantle of rashness in the absence of the suspended Cristian Romero. He’s made seven fouls in his last three matches. When cool heads are required in the situation Spurs find themselves in, the approach of Dragusin isn’t exactly helping calm the nerves.
Dragusin’s position, temperament and Tudor’s high-intensity defensive setup all point toward him picking up multiple fouls yet again.
At 7/2 with Sky Bet for +2 fouls, the market is not fully reflecting how often Dragusin is being forced into challenges and making them under Tudor’s system. Two or more fouls in this clash looks well within range.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Radu Dragusin +2 fouls committed (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ Best Bet…
1pt treble on: Alex Scott +2 shots, Harry Maguire +2 fouls won & Radu Dragusin +2 fouls committed (33/1 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ Profit & Loss record 25/26
Best Bet singles (1 unit)
Best Bet multiples
Total P+L
Matchday One
0
-1
-1
Matchday Two
0
-1
-2
Matchday Three
0
-1
-3
Matchday Four
0
-1
-4
Matchday Five
+2.75
-1
-2.75
Matchday Six
-1
-1
-4.75
Matchday Seven
-1
0
-5.75
Matchday Eight
-3
0
-8.75
Matchday Nine
0
-1
-9.75
Matchday 10
-1
-1
-11.75
Matchday 11
-1
0
-12.75
Matchday 12
-1
-1
-14.75
Matchday 13
-2
0
-16.75
Matchday 14
-1
-2
-19.75
Matchday 15
0
-1
-20.75
Matchday 16
0
-1
-21.75
Matchday 17
0
-1
-22.75
Matchday 18
0
-1
-23.75
Matchday 19
0
-1
-24.75
Matchday 20
-1
0
-25.75
Matchday 21
-4
0
-29.75
Matchday 22
0
-1
-30.75
Matchday 23
0
-1
-31.75
Matchday 24
-1
-1
-33.75
Matchday 25
-1
-1
-35.75
Matchday 26
-1
-1
-37.75
Matchday 27
-2
-1
-40.75
Matchday 28
-1
-1
-42.75
