Before Fulleffort scratched from Kentucky Derby 2026, I was in that delicate balance as a public handicapper between picking who I thought was the best horse and picking the best value.
But with Fulleffort scratched, the choice is clear for me as I think Further Ado is the most likely winner of this race. And my 4-1 fair odds look almost certain to happen, with the morning-line favorite going favored and both So Happy and The Puma taking more money than initially expected.
I am looking to fade all three of the other top four choices here. Renegade is the biggest danger in my mind, but Further Ado has shown to be faster on measures such as Ragozin Data, and the rail is enough of a handicap not to want to worry about a favorite I didn’t love to begin with.
So Happy and The Puma are clearer tosses for me. I’m taking the bold stand of fading the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby as a prep, which means So Happy at single-digit odds is a complete no-go. I have cooled to The Puma because of the lack of a published workout within 12 days of the Derby. This is a demanding race, and a horse not having raced at 2 going this long without a workout is not for me at a short price.
Further Ado I am excited about, though. His Blue Grass Stakes (G1) was scintillating, and it’s nearly impossible to see him losing this race if he runs back to it. That’s never a guarantee, of course, but his 6-1 price is more than fair to find out if he is a super horse.
I am going to play this extremely narrowly and just lean on Further Ado, Emerging Market, Chief Wallabee and Commandment to run well. I also will press that opinion with a key on Further Ado, whom I will single on the main ticket of my multi-race wagers.
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Horse
Jockey
ML
Ed’s fair odds
1
Renegade
I. Ortiz Jr.
4-1
5-1
2
Albus
M. Franco
30-1
125-1
3
Intrepido
H. Berrios
50-1
125-1
4
Litmus Test
M. Garcia
50-1
125-1
5
Right To Party
C. Elliott
30-1
125-1
6
Commandment
L. Saez
6-1
6-1
7
Danon Bourbon
A. Nishimura
20-1
40-1
8
So Happy
M. Smith
15-1
30-1
9
The Puma
J. Castellano
10-1
14-1
10
Wonder Dean
R. Sakai
30-1
32-1
11
Incredibolt
J. Torres
20-1
80-1
12
Chief Wallabee
J. Alvarado
8-1
10-1
13
Silent Tactic
C. Torres
20-1
Scr
14
Potente
J. Hernandez
20-1
33-1
15
Emerging Market
F. Prat
15-1
9-1
16
Pavlovian
E. Maldonado
30-1
80-1
17
Six Speed
B. Hernandez Jr.
50-1
54-1
18
Further Ado
J. Velazquez
6-1
4-1
19
Golden Tempo
J. Ortiz
30-1
40-1
20
Fulleffort
T. Gaffalione
20-1
Scr
21
Great White
A. Achard
50-1
125-1
22
Ocelli
J. Ramos
50-1
103-1
23
Robusta
E. Jaramillo
50-1
AE
24
Corona de Oro
B. Hernandez Jr.
50-1
AE
