Earlier this week, the Toronto Maple Leafs won the NHL Draft Lottery and to say that changes things would be an understatement.
The Leafs weren’t completely doomed after finishing 28th last season, but new GM John Chayka would’ve had his work cut out for him. An ageing roster, a lack of assets and a two-year timeline for their franchise player made the situation extremely tricky to navigate. The clock wasn’t just ticking; it was close to midnight. It would’ve taken every ounce of creativity to reopen Toronto’s seemingly shut window; four lottery balls changed that in an instant.
Now, the Leafs are getting a premium talent injection from the top of the draft, one that can probably help right off the bat and for years to come. A previously thin margin for error looks a lot wider now with the first pick giving the Leafs something they didn’t previously have: Time. A seemingly shut window has now been extended.
Given the team’s prior track record, it should come as no surprise that Toronto’s current situation was already not as dire as a typical fifth-last team. Adding the No. 1 pick only helps that further.
Here’s where the Leafs stand going into the 2026-27 season. All projected values are age-adjusted based on each player’s profile of comparable peers. Here’s a primer on the Cup Checklist.
What the Leafs have
The Leafs still have Auston Matthews, who still qualifies as a franchise forward; everything flows from there.
For many teams, that’s the hardest part and that Matthews still lands at the franchise level is one of the few reasons to believe this can still work.
Franchise status is not a level he hit last year (plus-13.4 Net Rating per 82), but Matthews’ prior track record suggests a bounce-back should be expected. It may never again be to his previous heights, but Matthews still projects to be one of the league’s best centers. A new coach — a must if the Leafs have any hopes of being a playoff team next season — should be able to coax that out of him.
Having William Nylander by his side certainly helps. Despite the train wreck surrounding him, Nylander still managed to score at a 100-point pace last season. His defensive game may leave a lot to be desired, but as a secondary star, he’s still a perfect fit.
After those two, a lot of Toronto’s supporting cast still works in the right role, especially if the team’s goaltending can get back up to speed.
John Tavares may be better served for the wing these days, but a 71-point season is nothing to scoff at. As he slides down the depth chart, it’s fair to expect Matthew Knies and/or Easton Cowan to slide up to fill the scoring forward role. While Knies struggled mightily in the second half, a 66-point power forward who’s only 23 is a great piece to have.
The Leafs’ presumed addition of Gavin McKenna to that mix adds further flexibility to all of that, and it’s reasonable to expect he can produce at a top-six level right from the jump. That fills one need in the depth core with significant room to grow from there.
As for the defensemen, Morgan Rielly, Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe technically fit the No. 2-to-4 roles given their skill sets and still grade out as top-four level overall. But their extreme one-dimensionality — especially Rielly and Tanev — is definitely a major concern, with none being top-pair calibre.
A true No. 1 ahead of all three may reveal that as a winning formula under the right coach and it’s possible the values of all three are depressed from the last year of Craig Berube hockey. But the trio all being 32 or older means that even if it works, time is running out on their effectiveness.
What the Leafs need
For the last decade, the Leafs have had one glaring hole that they’ve made next to zero attempts toward filling: A true No. 1 defenseman — one that excels at both ends of the ice.
For a while they got by with Rielly, who was offensively gifted enough relative to other Cup-winning No. 1s. But his struggles without the puck often meant the Leafs playing it safe, whether that was a timid system that shrank offensively in the playoffs, or insulating him with defensive types. Either way, it didn’t work and in his 30s, even the offensive side has wilted well below the level that’s necessary in that role.
That’s not exactly an easy hole to fill, but in order for this to work, the Leafs are going to have to try a lot harder to fill it than they have over the past decade. The rise in value of the league’s best defensemen has created an even larger gap between the haves and have-nots in this realm. That’s clear to see from the Central and Atlantic sides of the current playoff bracket, where Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin and Lane Hutson have made their mark.
The Leafs desperately need someone who can approach that level to fill that longstanding hole. One exception to the rule in the elite core is workable for a typical playoff team, but it’s a lot rarer for conference finalists. For champions? Almost impossible. From 2012 to 2025, only one team, Vegas, had an exception to the rule at the top of the lineup, and even that didn’t matter because Jack Eichel certainly looked franchise-calibre when it counted. The opposite has often been true in Toronto, exacerbating the issue.
The bigger problem currently facing the Leafs is that they no longer have just one hole at the top; they have two. This is where the absence of Mitch Marner still looms large on the franchise, where the lack of a feasible replacement in the shutdown forward role spelled doom last season. Well, part of it.
Winning the lottery has changed some of that for the future, as the Leafs will likely now have an internal solution to filling a hole in the elite core; it just won’t happen right away. Bridging the Matthews era and presumably the McKenna era will mean delaying Father Time on one side and accelerating it on the other.
The big question
What does the No. 1 pick mean for the retool?
It means a lot, clearly.
Start with the infusion of the kind of high-end talent that disappeared to Vegas and wasn’t replaced last summer.
Who knows how good McKenna, assuming he’s the pick, will be as a rookie. For every Macklin Celebrini (63 points in 70 games), who thrived in their first year, there’s a Jack Hughes (21 in 61) or Alexis Lafrenière (21 in 56), who struggled as teenagers in their first NHL seasons. At his size and strength, McKenna might struggle to adjust initially to NHL-sized competitors, but he’ll also be joining a team with a ton of support to lean on.
At minimum, he should deliver some flashes of the kind of playmaking that left with you-know-who, including on a power play that lacked a real focal point last season.
Wherever he ends up playing, McKenna (or Ivar Stenberg) will be a major upgrade in talent on some of the wingers who played heavy minutes on the Leafs’ top two lines last season — the likes of Max Domi, Bobby McMann and Matias Maccelli.
The Leafs were going to be hard-pressed to inject a talent like that through other means this summer. That, along with some other deft offseason maneuvering (a major point of uncertainty obviously with this unproven front office), might just convince Matthews into sticking around for at least another season, which is obviously essential to the retool path.
The No. 1 pick gives the new front office some options in those efforts this offseason.
Suddenly, the prospect of trading Knies for an impact defenceman doesn’t feel quite as problematic with another promising young winger in the mix. Or maybe the Leafs decide to keep Knies and fish in free-agent waters for that defenceman instead, with a Darren Raddysh or Rasmus Andersson.
Another thing to consider: If Matthews stays (for now), still a major question mark even after the lottery win, and the Leafs do manage to turn things around next season, the summer of 2027 could become one of great possibilities.
Not only would the Leafs be in position to extend Matthews’ contract, potentially, and secure his future in Toronto, they might also become a more attractive trade destination for a certain superstar in Edmonton — if things aren’t turned around there by then.
And if Matthews decides he wants to go elsewhere, this summer or next, the Leafs aren’t devoid of a cornerstone to build around.
This pick is a major lifeline for the Leafs.
It’s no longer over — the Leafs might be back. Shockingly landing the first pick will have that effect.
There’s still a lot of work to be done to get the Leafs back on track and this summer will be extremely telling about Chayka’s initial vision. But the road back to contention no longer feels borderline impossible.
The draft lottery has changed everything. It’s a gift to a franchise that desperately needed one. Now it’s up to Chayka to steer the ship back in the right direction; is he up for the challenge?
