After the frustration of failing to get a win since January’s American Express, what Scottie Scheffler needed was a tournament where he reminded everyone who’s boss by blowing the field away. So how about shooting a second-round 60 and reaching 19-under after 54 holes in an event where the tournament record is 23-under. Dominant stuff.
Except that despite pouring in 22 birdies over Thursday, Friday and Saturday, Scheffler’s dazzling golf isn’t even good enough for the lead. Although he’s kicked clear of the peloton, one man has come with him in the breakaway. VIKTOR HOVLAND has seen Scheffler’s 60-67 middle rounds burst and raised it with a 61-64 of his own. And a birdie to the American’s bogey at 18 on Saturday has put the Norwegian into a one-shot lead on 20-under.
The market now shows 8/11 Scheffler, 5/4 Hovland. With Patrick Cantlay (33s) and Akshay Bhatia (40s) five back of the lead, the odds reflect what looks almost certainly like a two-horse race even though with soft conditions and a favourable weather forecast don’t rule out the possibility of someone throwing in a stupidly-low closer. After all, this is where Jim Furyk shot a final-round 58 in 2016.
That said, I do think it’s Scheffler v Hovland and those who were on the World No.1 pre-tournament at 9/2 (including Ben Coley, who made Scheffler his only bet) look to be in a great position. There’s the chance to hedge now although just be careful of that daft number coming from someone in the chasing pack.
However, if I was a Scheffler backer I’d be thinking that Hovland would be one of the few people I’d be extremely wary of in this position. The bogey-birdie twist at 18 last night which gave the man from Oslo the lead is a warning sign that this could get difficult. And while I used the word ‘frustration’ as part of a turn of phrase in the opening sentence, Scheffler has undoubtedly cut an irritated figure both on the course and in interviews in the last few months.
If Scheffler had his usual three or four wins by this stage of the season, this would surely be game over. But after a string of near misses – he’s had three seconds, two thirds and two fourths since that American Express win in January – there may just be some tension if things don’t start to go his way. That scenario is fuelled by Scheffler losing shots on the greens yesterday (ranked 56th for SG: Putting).
Hovland has had his own issues to deal with but let’s not forget that the last time he won, it came off the back of three missed cuts. A week before that Valspar victory in March 2025, he’d opened with an 80 at The Players Championship. In his last three starts, he’s missed two cuts but finished third at the Canadian Open after closing with a 65. Hovland is unpredictable but dangerous.
Crucially, Hovland is enjoying himself. “It was really fun. Just had a great time,” he said after outscoring Scheffler by three on Saturday. “You know, it’s been a while since I’ve been in this position. You know, to go head-to-head against the best player in the world and pull off some great shots, it was just a lot of fun.” Scheffler pulling clear is a realistic scenario but Hovland racking up an eighth PGA Tour win is too. Back him at 5/4.
I’ll also have a two-ball double, starting with SHANE LOWRY to beat last week’s US Open champion, Wyndham Clark. Unsurprisingly, Clark is knackered. “Fumes, fumes. Just one more day,” he said after round three. “I’m looking forward to next week. I’m not going to touch a club. So that’s all I’m fantasising about right now.”
He’s done ever so well to keep going but perhaps today is where Clark hits the wall. Some parts of his game are creaking so the warning signs are there. Lowry, by contrast, looks to be feeling the refreshing benefits of returning to former longtime bagman Dermot Byrne. Reunited this week, Lowry has shot lower each day (68-65-64) and can win this match-up at 6/5.
For the second leg of the double, I’ll add in BRIAN HARMAN to outscore Justin Rose. Course specialist Harman has a ridiculous record here after making the top 10 in seven of his last eight starts at TPC River Highlands. Yes, you did read that right. The current streak is five in a row. He rather dawdled for the first two days but a 63 on Saturday (1st Tee To Green) lifted him 28 spots to tied 14th and the annual top 10 looks very much in reach again.
Rose has bowled along nicely all week and needed a low one yesterday to get in contention but dropped a couple of spots to tied 10th. He’s now eight back. The Englishman hasn’t shot lower than 68 in a final round so far this season and perhaps his thoughts will be turning towards the Open Championship at Birkdale (the scene of his top four as an amateur in 1998). The double on Clark and Harman pays around 10/3.
Posted at 09:40 BST on 28/06/26
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