After a league phase in which only Arsenal and Bayern Munich looked truly excellent, the Champions League has arrived at the knockout playoff round. A quick refresher of what that means: In the new format, introduced last season, the top eight teams in the league-stage table advance directly to the round of 16; the next 16 teams face each other in a two-leg playoff to get into the round of 16. Of the new format’s changes, this one is my least favorite. It gives underperforming big teams a chance to back their way into the knockouts, and though it gives smaller sides an extra shot at glory, most of the ties don’t look very competitive.
Still, the format does introduce 16 more elimination matches, and strange things can always happen in knockout rounds. These playoffs look better than last year’s in terms of matchup quality as well, so that’s a nice bonus. There’s only really one completely one-sided tie, and even in that one, the favored team isn’t particularly strong; the opposition is just that weak. With that in mind, let’s break down each matchup one by one to pick out just why you should watch each of them, and who stands to make it at least one round further at the end of this fortnight’s barrage of soccer. Hit my music:
(11) Paris Saint-Germain vs. (21) Monaco
First leg: Feb. 17 at Monaco
Second leg: Feb. 25 at PSG
While I normally hate Champions League knockout ties between two clubs from the same league, especially when one team is clearly better than the other, PSG-Monaco has some intrigue, thanks mostly to Monaco’s 1-0 win in Ligue 1 play back in November. It also helps the neutral appeal that PSG hasn’t been the same dominant side that steamrolled its way to the club’s first Champions League trophy last spring, due mostly to a nightmarish slate of injuries. Currently in second place domestically, PSG also struggled relative to its quality in the league phase of the Champions League. While its resumé does include some impressive wins—2-1 against Barça early on, a 7-2 demolition of Bayer Leverkusen, 4-0 over Atalanta, and 5-3 in a wild game against Tottenham—the holders also dropped points against Sporting Lisbon (2-1 defeat), Athletic Club (0-0 draw), and Newcastle United (1-1 draw on the final matchday). If any of those results had gone in PSG’s favor, it would have earned a bye into the round of 16.
Instead, it gets the chance to avenge one of its three domestic losses to Monaco, which started the league phase with a bewildering 4-1 defeat to Club Brugge before coming up with some clutch draws against Manchester City, Tottenham, and Juventus. On paper, this should be a PSG stomp, and it might be; observers with a decent memory might recall that PSG was also in the playoffs last season after an underwhelming league phase, and we all know how that ended. And for one of the rare times this season, the Parisians are close to fully healthy and primed to hit their stride sooner or later. But weird things can happen when two league rivals play each other in continental competitions, and Monaco has enough talent to at least make PSG sweat.
(13) Juventus vs. (20) Galatasaray
First leg: Feb. 17 at Galatasaray
Second leg: Feb. 25 at Juventus
Juventus is in a strange place right now. Looking at its Champions League form, one might think things are going decently well: three wins over clubs it should have beat (Bodo/Glimt, Pafos, and Benfica), four draws, only one loss, a 1-0 squeaker to Real Madrid—not awesome results, but enough to secure a comfortable playoff spot. But that’s about all of the good news the Old Lady has had this season. Manager Igor Tudor, who guided the club into the Champions League in the first place after joining in late March last season, was fired in October thanks to an underwhelming start in Serie A, and now, former Italy manager Luciano Spalletti is at the helm. Spalletti was fired from Italy after a 3-0 loss to Norway in World Cup qualification, so he wasn’t exactly riding a high entering the job, and though he shepherded the club into the playoffs, it’s safe to say that a defeat here would put his job in jeopardy. He’ll have to lean on American Weston McKennie and Serbian Dusan Vlahovic for goals, as no one else seems capable of putting the ball in the back of the net this Champions League campaign. McKennie especially has been outstanding, though, so he might be enough to navigate into the round of 16.
Luckily for Juventus, its opponent here is Galatasaray, no one’s idea of a heavyweight. Despite beating Liverpool 1-0 at home on Matchday 2—the Turkish side deserved the win, but also might have been lucky to catch Liverpool during its lowest point of the season—Galatasaray has not been particularly impressive. A 5-1 defeat to Frankfurt on Matchday 1 was more indicative of the side’s quality, and even though it managed to grab enough points with wins against Bodo/Glimt, Ajax, and Monaco, this side is basically one Victor Osimhen slump away from being one of the worst teams left in the tournament. Osimhen has been really good, though, and that does give Galatasaray a chance in any game. The Nigerian scored six of the side’s nine UCL goals, and he notched four with Nigeria in the African Cup of Nations last month. Will all of that weight to perform, as well as the many minutes he’s logged so far this season, come back to bite him and Galatasaray? It’s possible, but against a side as underwhelming as Juventus, a couple of good games might be enough to pull off an upset.
(9) Real Madrid vs. (24) Benfica
First leg: Feb. 17 at Benfica
Second leg: Feb. 25 at Real Madrid
The first of two rematches from the league phase in these playoffs gets a big “hell yeah” from me. This is not because I think Real Madrid is in any real danger of losing to Benfica, and more because of how these clubs’ league phase match went on the final day. With Real knowing a draw would almost certainly earn an automatic spot in the round of 16, and Benfica knowing it needed not just a win but a big win to secure the goal difference tiebreaker, and with the juicy narrative of former Real manager and all-around legend of chaos José Mourinho at the helm of the Portuguese side, the 4-2 Benfica win provided the best drama of Matchday 8.
It also serves as a good blueprint of how this tie might go. On Real’s side, everything runs through Kylian Mbappé. The Frenchman is leading the UCL with a ludicrous 13 goals in eight matches, and his two against Benfica were all that Real could create on that night. Sandwiched between those goals, though, Benfica scored three, thanks to a brace from Andreas Schjelderup and a penalty goal-assist combo from Vangelis Pavlidis. The 3-1 lead Benfica held as late as the 58th minute would have been enough to see it through, but Mbappé’s second goal forced Benfica to score a fourth. After Real got two stoppage time red cards, it would be Benfica goalie Anatoliy Trubin who would send his club into the playoffs, scoring the goal that moved Benfica into a very skittish 24th place.
Objectively speaking, this doesn’t mean much for this playoff tie. In that wacky league-stage game, Real was simply playing to not lose instead of unleashing its full arsenal and intensity. That should not be a problem here. Nobody gets up for Champions League knockout matches like Real, and it would be a true shock if it loses to Benfica. It would, however, not be the biggest shock in the world, thanks to Real’s struggles this season, which cost manager Xabi Alonso his job in January. Since Alonso was let go on Jan. 12, Real has steadied some under replacement Álvaro Arbeloa, but nobody thinks Arbeloa is the longterm solution. Could there be just enough turmoil in the Spanish capital to allow Mourinho to pull off a special comeback? Probably not, but given how this matchup went last time out, I’ll be locked in regardless.
(15) Atalanta vs. (17) Borussia Dortmund
First leg: Feb. 17 at Borussia Dortmund
Second leg: Feb. 25 at Atalanta
It’s a shame Atalanta isn’t at full strength heading into this showdown with Borussia Dortmund, because this could have been the most entertaining tie of them all. That’s down to Dortmund, this year’s recipient of my No Defense, Just Vibes award. Dortmund is likely a few years of development away from regaining its natural place as everybody’s favorite dark horse, but the Black and Yellows are a blast to watch right now. Just look at these scorelines from the league phase: 4-4, 4-1, 4-2, 1-4, 4-0, 2-2. That’s so many goals, in both directions! Even if the defending is bad and the team lacks a Plan B when the goals aren’t flowing in their favor, that matters little to me as a spectator. Dortmund plays fast and loud, with little regard for protecting its own goal, and that’s just good television. That’s especially true considering how balanced the Dortmund attack is. No player has more than three UCL goals, but six players have scored at least two. The Germans might not have any quality wins over top opposition, but they won’t be scared to turn every match into a track meet, betting on themselves to come out ahead.
Fortunately for Dortmund, Atalanta—my favorite non-elite team to watch over the past couple seasons—isn’t firing on all cylinders right now. After longtime manager Gian Piero Gasperini decamped for Roma in June, Atalanta went with Croatian Ivan Juric, who lasted three months before the door hit him where the good lord split him. Raffaele Palladino has fixed some of what was ailing the Bergamo side, and Atalanta is now a respectable sixth domestically. But the results don’t hide that this isn’t the same exciting side as the Gasperini ones, doubly so now that it sold its most entertaining and dynamic player, Ademola Lookman, to Atlético Madrid. There is still talent here, with Belgian Charles De Ketelaere having the best season of his career, and former West Ham bust Gianluca Scamacca is rediscovering his goalscoring touch, but Atalanta just can’t keep up with Dortmund’s offense. Palladino’s best chance in guiding Atalanta back to the round of 16, and perhaps beyond, will be to continue building defensive solidity, and to hope that late losses to eliminated sides Athletic and Union Saint-Gilloise were just blips.
(12) Newcastle United vs. (22) Qarabag
First leg: Feb. 18 at Qarabag
Second leg: Feb. 24 at Newcastle
Newcastle is not a great side. After spending a whole bunch of money over the last half-decade, the Magpies have mostly returned to where they used to be, one of the handful of sub-title-contending Premier League teams that can push for the European places in good years but can never take one for granted. That’s not a bad place to be, and certainly better than where it was pre-Saudi takeover, but watching this team play week in and week out reveals a side that is not real competition for the top tier, and its 12th-place finish in the league phase actually flatters to deceive a little. Newcastle pulled no upsets on an easy schedule, losing to Barcelona 2-1 and drawing PSG on the final matchday. Its wins were over the likes of PSV (28th place), Union Saint-Gilloise (27th place), and Athletic Club (29th place). It did beat one fellow playoff team—a 3-0 win over Benfica (24th place)—but also lost to Marseille (25th place). There’s no reason to believe that Newcastle will make it past the round of 16.
There is, however, much reason to believe it will make it there. Qarabag is punching above its weight here, thanks mainly to an unexpected 2-2 draw against Chelsea, as well as wins over eliminated Copenhagen and Eintracht Frankfurt. On the strength of those results, the Horsemen snuck into the playoffs, but that’s about all there is to hope for here. Their minus-8 goal difference is the worst of any team in the knockouts, and ranked eighth worst overall. There are some fun players on the roster, like Colombia’s Camilo Durán and Cape Verde’s Leandro Andrade, but this should likely be the most lopsided tie of the playoffs. Newcastle can play its middling best, the quality that has led it to a current 10th-placed standing in the Prem, and still win comfortably. I don’t have much else to say here; I guess it will be fun to watch Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes in action, as both Englishmen have popped off for a combined 11 goals in eight matches. Let’s move on.
(14) Atlético Madrid vs. (19) Club Brugge
First leg: Feb. 18 at Club Brugge
Second leg: Feb. 24 at Atlético Madrid
Will the real Atlético Madrid please, please stand up? In Diego Simeone’s 15th season in charge of the Colchoneros, Atlético has at times looked like one of the best teams in Europe, as recently as last week’s 4-0 Copa del Rey demolition of Barcelona. Other times, they look like a team in dire need of new ideas, like in, uh, last weekend’s 3-0 La Liga loss at the hands of Rayo Vallecano. Even in the Champions League, Atleti has been all over the place: Though it lost, it played Liverpool tough in a 3-2 defeat on Matchday 1, but also lost 4-0 to Arsenal. It beat Inter Milan 2-1, then lost 2-1 to Bodo/Glimt on the final matchday. It’s dizzying, and even the addition of Lookman and the greatness of Julián Alvarez does not do enough to shift the identity of this team fully into an attacking side under Simeone. Instead, the side is stuck between trying to adapt to a more proactive, expansive game and its usual habits of mucking everything up for opponents in the terrordome.
While this isn’t the Atlético of old, so focused on defense and hard play that it oftentimes forgot to score, this current version should be more than good enough to beat Club Brugge. The Belgian side is one of three teams (along with Galatasary and Benfica) to make it through the league phase with four or more losses, thanks to a 4-1 victory over Monaco and dominant wins over eliminated sides Kairat and Marseille. (That Marseille victory knocked the French side out of the competition and put Brugge through, so clutch points have to be awarded there.) Otherwise, Brugge looked mostly terrible against top opposition, losing to Bayern, and Arsenal by a combined 7-0 scoreline. It did manage to draw Barcelona 3-3 in a ridiculous game, but that’s not enough to make me think the Belgians can pull off a shock here. Simeone is too good at beating up on bad opposition in knockout rounds, even with an inconsistent side, and I figure that Atlético will live long enough to get trounced by a better side later on.
(10) Inter vs. (23) Bodo/Glimt
First leg: Feb. 18 at Bodo/Glimt
Second leg: Feb. 24 at Inter
Inter had a miracle run to the final last year, thanks to stout defending and, when that failed in the semifinal, some frankly incredible resilience against Barcelona in the best Champions League tie of the decade. God, that showdown was so good, and I say that as a fan of the team that lost. Even with the annihilation that Inter faced in the final courtesy of PSG, last season was a wild success in the Champions League, but the Inter of 2025-26 doesn’t seem well equipped to match, let alone surpass, last season’s run. Inter was the definition of a competent side in the league phase, though not one that went above and beyond. It beat Ajax, Slavia Prague, Union Saint-Gilloise, Kairat, and Borussia Dortmund, all sides under it on the final table. It also lost to Arsenal and Liverpool, as well as Atlético, the only questionable result of the phase, if standings are to be believed. This is a side that will beat who it should, lose to who it should, and that’s about that.
With that in mind, I’d still urge Inter to be careful against Bodo/Glimt. The Norwegians were menaces in the league stage, picking up crucial points against top-five opposition: draws against Tottenham and Dortmund, wins against Atlético and, in the most shocking result of the campaign to date, Manchester City, in a match that Bodo performed beautifully as a massive underdog.
Throw in a close loss against Juventus, and this Bodo team is battle-tested and unafraid of anyone it faces. Looking back at that City match, its two leading goalscorers of the league phase stepped up to contribute almost every bit of successful attacking play: Kasper Hogh scored a brace against the Premier League champs, while Jens Petter Hauge added the third. Will there be enough magic to beat Inter across two legs? It’s a tough ask for the Norwegians, and they are coming off a domestic disappointment, finishing in second by one point for the 2025 season, but a crucial win at home in the first leg could be enough to see their giant-killing fairy tale run continue for one more round, at least.
(16) Bayer Leverkusen vs. (18) Olympiacos
First leg: Feb. 18 at Olympiacos
Second leg: Feb. 24 at Bayer Leverkusen
The second rematch from the league phase is much less promising than the Real Madrid-Benfica re-do, but Leverkusen-Olympiacos might be the most even matchup coming in the playoffs. These are two flawed teams from wildly different talent and financial levels, and yet those flaws might make for fireworks. Let’s start with Leverkusen, who has the best win of the pair but also more questions to answer. On Nov. 25, the German side traveled to Manchester and, in front of City’s home fans, beat the titans of England 2-0 in a game of ruthless efficiency. While Leverkusen only managed two shots on target, that was enough for two goals, and the Black and Reds also managed to stop City from running the game with its usual possession advantage; it only ended up 54-46 in favor of the hosts.
However, Leverkusen is not as good as that win, and definitely not as steady. After hiring Erik ten Hag as manager, the club fired him just three matches after he got the ball, and though his replacement Kasper Hjulmand has been much better, this is still a side that’s in sixth in the Bundesliga. It also, crucially, lost to this Olympiacos team on Matchday 7. While Leverkusen has had some upheaval at the manager spot, Olympiacos has had José Luis Mendilibar at the helm since early 2024, making him a mainstay in soccer manager terms. Olympiacos isn’t too fancy with its set-ups: It plays a 4231, it doesn’t score much, but it also doesn’t give up much. The team’s leading scorer is 30-year-old Gelson Martins, not really a world-beater, but this is a well-drilled side that won’t let a game get away from it. OK, except the 6-1 defeat to Barcelona on Matchday 3, but hey, Olympiacos also gave Real Madrid one of its toughest tests in a narrow 4-3 defeat, and only gave up two to Arsenal. Given how Arsenal has played this season, that’s a miracle.
I’m most interested to see how much space and time on the ball Leverkusen left midfielder-wingback Alejandro Grimaldo gets in this tie. In Hjulmand’s 3421 system, Grimaldo usually has the run of the wing as defense collapse to stop the trident in attack, but Olympiacos’ 4231 should put two guys in his way. Given that Grimaldo was Leverkusen’s top goalscorer in the league phase, that might be enough to slow the side’s attack. But if the Spaniard finds creases to both score and create (he only notched one assist in the Champions League, but has five in Bundesliga play), then Leverkusen’s talent surplus might carry it to the round of 16.
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