An end to the fighting looks as distant as ever.
In previous years President Putin has used appearances at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum to transmit his current worldview and to repeat his criticisms of the West. In St Petersburg, he is expected to meet chief editors of international news agencies and deliver a keynote address.
Will he use this year’s forum to signal a change of position on Ukraine? So far there is nothing to suggest that.
Yet, inside Russia, there are signs of a growing public discourse on whether it is time to end the war.
I see evidence of it even in the country’s highly controlled media landscape.
Writing in the journal Russia In Global Affairs, which has close links to the country’s foreign policy establishment, political scientist Vasily Kashin recently concluded: “The goal of eliminating the anti-Russian regime in Ukraine at the current stage is fundamentally unachievable without the complete military occupation of the entire country, including the western part, for a long period. For Russia this is technically impossible.”
A few days later, pro-Kremlin tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets quoted political commentator Alexander Nosovich: “The expert community is split between those in favour of continuing the special military operation until the goals are achieved, and those who believe it’s time to end it, since the worst-case scenario is not even defeat, it’s an endless special operation.”
In the same paper, lawyer Dmitry Krasnov argued that, throughout Russian history, “it was lost wars and humiliating truces that regularly led to new breakthroughs, reforms and surprisingly to new victories… major geopolitical losses were sometimes more useful than brilliant victories”.
In a country whose national idea has been shaped around the concept of Russia as a nation of victors and victories, it was astonishing to see such an article in print.
Was it hinting that Russia should end its war on Ukraine without achieving its goals?
A few days later, I tried to read the article again online.
“Error 404. Page not found” flashed on to my screen. Access denied.
There may be a discourse. But it clearly has limits.
