A slim majority of Americans now say the economy is worse off under President Donald Trump than it was under former President Joe Biden, according to new national polling data.
Newsweek contacted the White House for comment via email outside of regular working hours.
A spokesman previously told Newsweek that Trump was delivering by “every metric,” pointing to how “inflation has cooled, GDP growth is accelerating, and the border is sealed.”
Why It Matters
Trump returned to office promising a restoration of economic competence, betting that voters who credited him with pre‑pandemic prosperity would trust his stewardship again.
And with the midterms approaching, even small shifts in economic sentiment could have an outsized impact on turnout, party enthusiasm, and control of Congress.
What To Know
A new Harvard CAPS–Harris Poll reveals a nation uneasy about its economic direction and sharply divided about what is driving current conditions.
The late‑January survey—conducted online January 28–29, 2026, among 2,000 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX—shows 53 percent of voters believe the economy is worse today than it was under Biden, while 47 percent say it is better, a three‑point slide for Trump since December.
With a margin of error of plus or minus 1.99 percentage points, the shift is subtle but statistically meaningful, hinting at a gradual cooling of the optimism that marked Trump’s first months back in office.
Some 63 percent of those surveyed said the “current state of the economy” was mostly due to the policies of the Trump administration, while 37 percent attributed it to how Biden ran the country—an 11-point drop since December.
That perception does little to reinforce the White House’s repeated narrative that Trump is “fixing Biden’s economic disaster,” instead suggesting that voters are holding him chiefly responsible for conditions they continue to view negatively.
On the broader question of presidential performance, voters flipped from 2025 to 2026: in February 2025, 58 percent said Trump did a better job as president and 42 percent said Biden, but in January 2026, 51 percent chose Biden and 49 percent chose Trump, representing a nine‑point reversal in the balance of preference, according to the same series.
There was some good news for the president in the poll in that there are views that the economy has improved slightly, with 38 percent saying it is on the right track—up from 36 percent in December.
Against the backdrop of national gloom, individual financial sentiment also showed a quieter but noteworthy shift. More than a third of voters reported that their own financial situation was improving.
That doesn’t translate into broad confidence about the national economy, but it does signal that household‑level experience is drifting in a more optimistic direction than national mood indicators.
However, only 38 percent said the country is on the right track overall, reflecting lingering national pessimism, according to the January release.
Voters were evenly split on current economic strength, with 51 percent describing the economy as strong and 49 percent calling it weak, highlighting a polarized reading of the same conditions.
This gap—between collective pessimism and personal improvement—is significant. Historically, when voters feel better about their own finances but still rate the national economy poorly, it often suggests that political messaging, partisan cues, or media narratives may be shaping perceptions of the wider economic picture more than lived experience.
It also tends to foreshadow volatile opinion movement, because personal financial assessments hold stronger predictive power for long‑term attitudes.
The shift toward saying the economy is “worse” under Trump may not reflect a direct evaluation of policy outcomes. Instead, it appears to sit within a broader pattern seen throughout the Harvard CAPS–Harris series:
- Trump’s overall approval fell two points in January
- His lowest marks are on inflation and trade—core components of economic perception
- Voters overwhelmingly identify inflation as their top issue
Taken together, the data suggest Trump is experiencing the same pattern that confronted presidents before him: even small price increases, or the perception of them, exert an outsized influence on economic ratings, and they do so far faster than improvements such as rising wages or falling unemployment can be felt.
For Democrats, the 53–47 split provides a new foothold in an economic debate long dominated by Trump’s messaging.
For Republicans, it is a warning sign that confidence in Trump’s stewardship is softening at the edges even as many of his policies remain broadly popular.
The survey used opt-in web-panel recruitment with results weighted by standard demographics and propensity to be online.
What People Are Saying
Trump on Truth Social last week: “My polling is highest ever. Thank you!”
He added in a separate post: “Fake and Fraudulent Polling should be, virtually, a criminal offense… I am going to do everything possible to keep this Polling SCAM from moving forward!”
White House spokesperson Kush Desai previously told Newsweek via email: “President Trump campaigned on fixing Joe Biden’s economic disaster and border crisis. By every metric, he is delivering—inflation has cooled, GDP growth is accelerating, and the border is sealed.
“Instead of covering how far America has come in just one year, the media has fixated on one contrived scandal after another. President Trump is most in his element when he’s with the everyday Americans who propelled him to office, and the President will continue delivering results and cutting out the Fake News middleman to tout what he has and continues to do for the American people.”
Mark Penn, co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris poll and Stagwell chairman and CEO, said: “President Trump’s ratings are slowing declining with Americans seeing the economy sagging and inflation raging, even though economic statistics show the opposite.”
Republican pollster Daron Shaw said: “The president faces two difficult obstacles—the virtually unanimous and intractable opposition of Democrats and the stubbornness of high prices.”
Republican pollster Patrick Allocco told Newsmax that Trump “continues to draw support beyond the Republican base,” citing “30 percent of independents” and “4 percent of Democrats,” adding that “59 percent of blue-collar workers are still with him: that’s huge going into the midterms,” while noting the Trump team is struggling to connect with women ages 21 to 44.
He added, “If you were against his economic policies, if you’re against his foreign policies, if you’re against his immigration policies, chances are you didn’t vote for President Trump in 2024. What we’re seeing right now is … this uprising of anger that’s bubbling up to the surface.”
What Happens Next
Political campaigns are likely to target persuadable voters by emphasizing affordability, wage gains and price stability.
If the share of voters who say the economy is strong stays roughly even with those who say it’s weak—and more people continue to feel their own finances improving—neither party will have a clear edge on economic leadership.
In that scenario, the outcome is likely to come down to who turns out to vote and how late‑breaking economic feelings shape opinions in the key House and Senate races.
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